Are We Wrong About These Players?

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Normally in this space, we recommend players to add to your Fantasy team, but identifying who not to add can be just as instructive.

One player whose CBS page has gotten a lot of views lately is Dean Kremer, an Orioles right-hander who threw seven shutout innings at the Mariners  onTuesday. It marked his third straight scoreless outing, so as you might expect, his numbers through five starts are terrific:

Or at least the ERA is. it's worth pointing out, though, that this isn't the 26-year-old's first foray into the majors. In 17 starts prior to this year, he had a 6.84 ERA. More convincing, then, would be the underlying numbers signaling a departure from the status quo, and ... they just don't.

Kremer has managed to avoid walks unlike in the past, but he still has just 6.1 K/9 and an uninspiring 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate. While he's allowed just one home run so far, his 46.4 percent fly-ball rate would suggest he's especially vulnerable to the long ball. He's throwing his fastball a little harder, but its attributes are otherwise unchanged, as is his general pitch selection. He also has a 4.68 xFIP and a 4.34 xERA. 

Nothing in Kremer's profile points to the sort of breakthrough that would make him a legitimate Fantasy asset. Fly balls that don't leave the yard typically become outs, so sometimes a fly-ball pitcher like him can enjoy a stretch like this. But sooner or later, it all comes crashing down, and those who bought in are left to pick up the pieces. I don't want that to be you.

So who, then, might actually be worth adding?

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